How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's scheduled talks on the near lengthy war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
  • Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House without results

The frequently changing summit is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's summit in August yielded little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.

Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Jodi Franco
Jodi Franco

Tech enthusiast and digital strategist with over a decade of experience in emerging technologies and startup ecosystems.

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