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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.